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An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent.

Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that “Florida messed up that election,” and Al Gore should have won.

His method, the “13 keys to the White House,” examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.

In an article published(opens in a new tab) in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

“If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners,” Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.

Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president’s approval ratings were down.

“In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump.

While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event.

“Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election.”

Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. “But certainly, watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added.

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Former U.S. president Donald Trump’s campaign and his allies are amplifying false rumours that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were abducting and eating pets, another instance of the inflammatory and anti-immigrant rhetoric Trump has promoted throughout his campaigns.

There’s no evidence that Haitian immigrants in an Ohio community are doing that, officials say, but Trump’s campaign and vice-presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance, along with other Republicans this week, repeated the claims.

Trump’s campaign, which has hit U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris for her leadership role in U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration on the U.S.-Mexico border, issued a press release Monday, the day before Tuesday’s presidential debate, suggesting “Kamala Migrants Ravage Ohio City.” Vance, Trump’s running mate, posted Tuesday that his office has “received many inquiries” about Haitian migrants abducting pets.

Vance acknowledged Tuesday it was possible “all of these rumours will turn out to be false.”

Officials have said there have been no credible or detailed reports about the claims, even as Trump and his allies use them to amplify racist stereotypes about Black and brown immigrants.

While president, Trump questioned why the U.S. would accept people from so-called “s—-hole” countries like Haiti and places in Africa. His 2024 campaign has focused heavily on illegal immigration, often referencing in his speeches crimes committed by migrants. He argues immigrants are responsible for driving up crime and drug abuse in the United States and taking resources from American citizens.

Here’s a closer look at how the false claims have spread.

How did this get started?

On Sept. 6, a post surfaced on X that shared what looked like a screengrab of a social media post apparently out of Springfield, Ohio. The retweeted post talked about the person’s “neighbor’s daughter’s friend” seeing a cat hanging from a tree to be butchered and eaten, claiming without evidence that Haitians lived at the house. The accompanying photo showed a Black man carrying what appeared to be a Canada goose by its feet. That post continued to get shared on social media.

On Monday, Vance posted on X. “Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country. Where is our border czar?” he said. The next day, Vance posted again on X about Springfield, saying his office had received inquires from residents who said “their neighbors’ pets or local wildlife were abducted by Haitian migrants. It’s possible, of course, that all of these rumours will turn out to be false.”

Other Republicans shared similar posts. Among them was Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who posted a photo of kittens with a caption that said to vote for Trump “So Haitian immigrants don’t eat us.”

Hours before Trump’s debate with Harris on Tuesday, the former president posted two related photos on his social media site. One Truth Social post was a photo of Trump surrounded by cats and geese. Another featured armed cats wearing MAGA hats.

What do officials in Ohio say?

Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck’s office issued a statement knocking the rumours down.

“In response to recent rumours alleging criminal activity by the immigrant population in our city, we wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community,” Heck’s office said in an emailed statement.

Springfield police on Monday told the Springfield News-Sun that they had received no reports of stolen or eaten pets.

Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine held a news conference Tuesday to address the influx of Haitian immigrants to Springfield. He declined to address the allegations, deferring comment to local officials. But DeWine repeatedly spoke in support of the people of Haiti, where his family has long operated a charity.

What do we know about a separate case 175 miles (281 km) away?

An entirely unrelated incident that occurred last month in Canton, Ohio, got quickly — and erroneously — conflated into the discussion.

On Aug. 26, Canton police charged a 27-year-old woman with animal cruelty and disorderly conduct after she “did torture, kill, and eat a cat in a residential area in front (of) multiple people,” according to a police report.

But Allexis Ferrell is not Haitian. She was born in Ohio and graduated from Canton’s McKinley High School in 2015, according to public records and newspaper reports. Court records show she has been in and out of trouble with the law since at least 2017. Messages seeking comment were not returned by several attorneys who have represented her.

She is being held in Stark County jail pending a competency hearing next month, according to the prosecutor’s office.

What do advocates for Haitian immigrants say?

The posts create a false narrative and could be dangerous for Haitians in the United States, according to Guerline Jozef, founder and executive director of the Haitian Bridge Alliance, a group that supports and advocates for immigrants of African descent

“We are always at the receiving end of all kind of barbaric, inhumane narratives and treatments, specifically when it comes to immigration,” Jozef said in a phone interview.

Her comments echoed White House national security spokesman John Kirby.

“There will be people that believe it, no matter how ludicrous and stupid it is,” Kirby said. “And they might act on that kind of information, and act on it in a way where somebody could get hurt. So it needs to stop.”

What is the broader context of Haitians in Ohio and the United States?

Springfield, Ohio, a city of roughly 60,000, has seen its Haitian population grow in recent years. It’s impossible to give an exact number, according to the city, but it estimates Springfield’s entire county has an overall immigrant population of 15,000.

The city also says that the Haitian immigrants are in the country legally under a federal program that allows for them to remain in the country temporarily. Last month the Biden administration granted eligibility for temporary legal status to about 300,000 Haitians already in the United States because conditions in Haiti are considered unsafe for them to return. Haiti’s government has extended a state of emergency to the entire country due to endemic gang violence.

Another factor that’s cropping up, including being raised by Trump in an email Monday, is the August 2023 death of an 11-year-old boy who died after a vehicle driven by an immigrant from Haiti hit his school bus. After that, residents demanding answers about the immigrant community spoke out at city council meetings.

Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris clashed over abortion, the economy, immigration and Trump’s legal woes at their combative first presidential debate on Tuesday night, each seeking a campaign-altering moment in their closely fought election.

A former prosecutor, Harris, 59, appeared to get under the former president’s skin with a series of sharp attacks, prompting a visibly angry Trump to deliver a stream of falsehood-filled retorts.

At one point, she brought up Trump’s campaign rallies, goading him by saying that people often leave early “out of exhaustion and boredom.”

Trump, who has been frustrated by the size of Harris’ own crowds, said, “My rallies, we have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics.” He then pivoted to an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory claiming that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are “eating the pets” of residents.

“Talk about extreme,” Harris said, laughing.

With eight weeks to go before the Nov. 5 election, and days until early voting starts in some states, the debate – the only one scheduled – presented both opportunities and risks for each candidate in front of a televised audience of tens of millions of voters.

Harris also criticized Trump over his criminal conviction for covering up hush money payments to a porn star as well as his other indictments and a civil judgment finding him liable for sexual assault. Trump has denied wrongdoing and again accused Harris and the Democrats of orchestrating all of the cases without evidence.

The candidates opened the debate by focusing on the economy, an issue that polls show favors Trump.

Harris attacked Trump’s intention to impose high tariffs on foreign goods – a proposal she has likened to a sales tax on the middle class – while touting her plan to offer tax benefits to families and small businesses.

“Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression,” Harris said, referring to his years as president from 2017-2021. Unemployment peaked at 14.8 per cent in April 2020 and at 6.4 per cent when he left office. It was far higher in the Great Depression.

Members of the press appear in the spin room during a presidential debate between former U.S. president Donald Trump, on screen at left, and U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris, right, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Matt Slocum/AP Photo)

Trump, 78, criticized Harris for the persistent inflation during the Biden administration’s term, though he overstated the level of price increases. He also pivoted quickly to his top issue, immigration, claiming again without evidence that immigrants from “insane asylums” are crossing the U.S. southern border with Mexico.

Inflation, he said, “has been a disaster for people, for the middle class, for every class.”

The debate got under way with a surprise handshake between the two opponents, who had never met before. Harris approached Trump at his lectern, introducing herself by name, in what was the first handshake at a presidential debate since 2016.The encounter is particularly important for Harris, with opinion polls showing that more than a quarter of likely voters feel they do not know enough about her. Harris entered the race only seven weeks ago after President Joe Biden’s exit.

Harris delivered a lengthy attack on abortion limits, speaking passionately about women denied emergency care and victims of incest unable to terminate their pregnancies due to statewide bans that have proliferated since the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated a nationwide right in 2022. Three Trump appointees were in the majority of that ruling.

She also claimed Trump would support a national ban, an assertion Trump called a lie.

Trump, who has sometimes struggled with messaging on abortion, claimed falsely that Harris and Democrats support infanticide, which – as moderator Linsey Davis noted – is illegal in every state.

“As I said, you’re going to hear a bunch of lies,” Harris said.

Harris also sought to tie Trump to Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint that proposes expanding executive power, eliminating environmental regulations and making it illegal to ship abortion pills across state lines, among other right-wing goals.

Trump retorted that he has “nothing to do” with Project 2025, though some of his advisers were involved in its creation.

First meeting

Trump, who has spent weeks launching personal attacks on Harris that have included racist and sexist insults, largely avoided insults during the debate’s early moments. But he called her a “Marxist” as he grew increasingly agitated.

Trump’s advisers and fellow Republicans had urged him to focus on the high levels of inflation and immigration during Biden’s presidency, though both have dropped dramatically this year.

Presidential debates do not necessarily change voters’ minds, but they can transform the dynamics of a race. Biden’s poor performance against Trump in June led him to abandon his campaign on July 21.

In a contest that could again come down to tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states, even a small shift in public opinion could alter the outcome. The two candidates are effectively tied in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election, according to polling averages compiled by the New York Times.

The 90-minute debate, hosted by ABC News, was taking place at the National Constitution Centre in Philadelphia. As agreed by the campaigns, there was no live audience and candidates’ microphones were muted when it was not their turn to speak.

Harris spent days preparing in Pittsburgh, holding mock sessions on a stage with lights to recreate the debate environment.

Trump instead relied on informal chats with advisers, campaign appearances and media interviews to prepare, with former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – who had a memorably hostile exchange with Harris in a Democratic presidential debate in 2019 – offering advice.

On a call with reporters on Monday, Gabbard said Trump would treat Harris the same as any other opponent.

“President Trump respects women and doesn’t feel the need to be patronizing or to speak to women in any other way than he would speak to a man,” she said.

U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and former U.S. president Donald Trump took the stage on Tuesday night for their first and only scheduled presidential debate before the Nov. 5 election.

Here are some key quotes:

“I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people, and that is why I imagine and have actually a plan to build what I call an opportunity economy,” said Harris.

“Look, we’ve had a terrible economy, because inflation, which is really known as a country buster,” said Trump.

“People can’t go out and buy cereal or bacon or eggs or anything else. The people of our country are absolutely dying with what they’ve done. They’ve destroyed the economy,” said Trump.

Abortion

“I pledge to you, when Congress passes a bill to put back in place the protections of Roe v Wade as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law,” said Harris.

“Now, I believe in the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. … Now states are voting on it. … Each individual state is voting. It’s the vote of the people. Now it’s not tied up in the federal government,” said Trump.

Immigration

“I’ll tell you something, he’s going to talk about immigration a lot tonight, even when it’s not the subject that is being raised,” said Harris.

“Our country is being lost, we’re a failing nation,” Trump said, referring to people crossing into the country illegally.

Assassination attempt

“I probably took a bullet to the head for the things they say about me,” said Trump.

Truthfulness

“As I said, you’re gonna hear a bunch of lies, and that’s not actually a surprising fact,” said Harris.

“There she goes again. It’s a lie,” said Trump after Harris said he would sign a national abortion ban were he to win office.

Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack

“I had nothing to do with that, other than they asked me to make a speech,” said Trump, when asked if he regretted anything that day.

“I was at the Capitol. I was the vice president-elect. I was also a senator and on that day, the president of the United States incited a violent mob to attack our nation’s capital, to desecrate our nation’s capital,” said Harris.

Tariffs

“They are not going to have higher prices,” Trump said, defending his tariffs proposal.

COVID-19

“But what Donald Trump did, let’s talk about this, with COVID, is he actually thanked President Xi for what he did during COVID,” said Harris.

Project 2025

“What you’re going to hear tonight is a detailed and dangerous plan called Project 2025 that the former president intends on implementing if he were elected again,” said Harris

An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and East Asian descent.

Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that “Florida messed up that election,” and Al Gore should have won.

His method, the “13 keys to the White House,” examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.

In an article published(opens in a new tab) in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

“If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners,” Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.

Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president’s approval ratings were down.

“In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump.

While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event.

“Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election.”

Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. “But certainly, watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added.

MONTREAL – Just days after demolishing his deal with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is holding a three-day strategy session with his MPs in Montreal, where his MPs are embracing their new-found distance from what one called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s “radioactive” brand.

Singh has brought his caucus of 23 MPs to the prime minister’s hometown, to prepare for the fall sitting of Parliament, and make a final push to claim a Liberal seat in a local byelection.

Between Tuesday and Thursday, the federal New Democrats will convene largely behind closed doors to plot the party’s political strategy for the months ahead.

Singh’s decision to pull his party out of the supply-and-confidence deal last week — giving the minority Liberals minimal advance notice in the process — has significantly altered the political landscape.

The Conservatives are already hot on the NDP’s heels about bringing down the government, while the Bloc Québécois have signalled an intent to capitalize on holding the balance of power(opens in a new tab) when confidence votes come up.

On their way in to today’s meetings, NDP MPs said they’re feeling lighter now that they are free from the two-party pact, and it’s a move their constituents called for this summer — and are now welcoming.

“I think it’s fair to say that my folks are pretty happy that we’ve put some distance between us and the Liberals,” said NDP MP Alistair MacGregor. “Justin Trudeau’s name is very radioactive in my parts of the country.”

NDP MP Don Davies told reporters he was proud of what the deal accomplished, but it was “an unusual thing,” and now he’s welcoming the return of traditonal minority dynamics. “That’s not a gamble or a risk, that’s the way Parliament works.”

At 12:30 p.m. ET, Singh is holding a press conference where he is expected to discuss the objectives of the caucus “planning session” and speak more about the NDP’s priorities.

Navigating new House dynamics

There will be two focuses of this week’s caucus retreat, according to a senior NDP source speaking on background. The first is the gains they want to make in the House of Commons and how they plan to handle votes now on a case-by-case basis.

The NDP pulled out of the supply-and-confidence pact before ensuring a few key pieces of legislation cross the finish line, but the party stays they’ll still be pushing the Liberals to make good on their promises.

Among the bills the party will press the government to pass is the Pharmacare Act, which outlines the “foundational principles” of a national universal drug coverage plan, and offers initial diabetes and contraceptive coverage. It was left before the Senate when Parliament adjourned for the summer.

The senior NDP source said healthcare is set to be a central focus for MPs this fall. They will be watching for the in-the-works Safe Long-Term Care Act to be tabled, and will be looking to ensure the expanding rollout of the national dental-care plan — which the government just launched new ads about — stays on track.

Asked whether they’re worried that pulling out of the deal has put progress on the suite of major social programs in peril, NDP MPs said no. New Democrats’ view is that they got what they could out of the agreement, and if the Liberals don’t follow-through, it’ll be on them.

“I think it was necessary to end the deal to give us better leverage,” said NDP MP Blake Desjarlais. “The reason why we had the deal was so that we could actually give runway to really big pieces of legislation.”

Going forward, Desjarlais said he still thinks the NDP could be a legislative dance partner for the government if they present new progressive policies to tackle pressing issues such as housing and affordability.

There’s also voting accessibility reforms to the Canada Elections Act that the New Democrats still want to see advanced, but those changes are currently wrapped up in a bill that proposes to push back(opens in a new tab) the next fixed election date.

That change would potentially protect pensions for MPs first elected in 2019, and the NDP have led the charge to see that provision scrapped(opens in a new tab) despite some recent Conservative rhetoric.

Pitching voters on progressive change

The second area set to dominate discussions among NDP MPs and senior staffers this week, is how they plan to pitch themselves to voters as a viable progressive alternative to the surging Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives.

Now that the next federal election call is likely less than a year away(opens in a new tab) — a Singh-admitted side effect of his supply deal retreat — the party says it will be focusing on telling Canadians what’s at stake in the next vote.

The senior source said that while holding the government to account on the Hill remains a priority, as long as an embattled Trudeau stays on, New Democrats think the Liberals could be nearly out of the electoral picture come the next campaign.

This has Singh and his team feeling as if they are what stands between Canada and a Conservative government, and they are determined to paint a scene for voters of what that could mean for social supports they value.

“Canadians need to understand clearly if they elect a Conservative government, they will lose their dental care. Pharmacare will not proceed, probably all other progressive elements are at risk as well,” Davies said.

He said he didn’t think risking an earlier election puts these programs at any more of a heightened risk, as “there’s going to be an election next year no matter what we do.”

Faced with accusations that Conservatives would cut programs such as dental-, pharma- and child-care, the Official Opposition says it will not be sharing(opens in a new tab) their spending or policy plans until closer to the election.

The first early tests of whether Singh cutting ties with Trudeau and focusing on Poilievre is to his political advantage, are a pair of byelections taking place in less than a week.

One is in Elmwood-Transcona, Man. to replace an NDP MP who resigned his seat(opens in a new tab) in the House to work with Premier Wab Kinew, and where the New Democrats are now fighting the Conservatives to hold the seat.

The other is in a Montreal riding once held by former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin whose government fell on a non-confidence vote nearly two decades ago, making the symbolism behind the NDP’s choice of location for this week’s meetings hard to miss.

Projections have the Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que. shaping up to be a three-way race between the Liberals, Bloc, and the NDP. Singh’s got his sights set on picking up the seat through the extra time spent in the city.

While he’s already hit the hustings in this byelection more than a handful of times, Singh and members of his caucus will be canvassing with candidate Craig Sauve Tuesday night.

Alexandre Boulerice, the party’s only MP in the province, is “hopeful” that come Monday that will no longer be the case.

“We are cautious, of course, but we are hopeful,” he said. Asked whether the split from Liberals was done to help the New Democrats’ chances in the riding, Boulerice said he thinks cutting ties “is going to help us everywhere.”

“We got what we needed with that deal, but now it’s over. And I think the people in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun are getting that, because they don’t want to vote Liberal anymore,” Boulerice said. “They are really disappointed with Liberals, and are looking for an alternative, and the alternative is the NDP.”

Singh taps new chief, campaign lead

According to those in Singh’s inner circle, he’s heading into the meetings feeling good about how the roll-out of his political breakup with Trudeau(opens in a new tab) went and isn’t anticipating the same types of leadership questions his Liberal counterpart is facing from his caucus in Nanaimo, B.C.

He is also keen to talk to his MPs about what they’ve heard at doorsteps over the summer and their electoral-readiness. The party has so far nominated nearly 60 candidates, and, for the first time in a long time, are heading into the next campaign debt-free.

On that front, just as the Liberals start their search for a new national campaign director(opens in a new tab), Singh announced Monday that he’s tapped his chief-of-staff Jennifer Howard to take on the key role for the New Democrats ahead of the next national vote.

As a past NDP national campaign director and cabinet minister in Manitoba, Howard is being hailed as having “the experience necessary to take on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative cuts and turn the page on Justin Trudeau’s delays and disappointment.”

Moving in as Singh’s new chief is long-time party strategist and former deputy chief of staff Jo Gauvin.

“He is smart, committed and an incredibly hard worker. I know he will be an effective leader for our staff team and a trusted adviser to me,” Singh said in a release announcing the staffing shuffle on Monday.

Stepping into the deputy chief of staff role is Erin Morrison, who previously held senior positions with the Ontario and Saskatchewan NDP.

Set to focus on communications, Morrison will help Singh “deliver the message to Canadians that New Democrats are ready to bring down the cost of living and deliver hope for the future.”

The trio of appointments are effective Sept. 16, the day Parliament resumes and voters go to the polls in the pair of byelections.