Category: World

PHILADELPHIA –

In their first and perhaps only debate, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris described the state of the country in starkly different terms. As the two traded jabs, some old false and misleading claims emerged along with some new ones.

Trump falsely touts his economy

TRUMP: “I created one of the greatest economies in the history of our country. … They’ve destroyed the economy.”

THE FACTS: This is an exaggeration. The economy grew much faster under Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan than it did under Trump. The broadest measure of economic growth, gross domestic product, rose 4 per cent a year for four straight years under Clinton. The fastest growth under Trump was three per cent in 2018. The economy shrank 2.2 per cent in 2020, at the end of Trump’s presidency. And a higher proportion of American adults had jobs under Clinton than under Trump. During the Biden-Harris administration, the economy expanded 5.8 per cent in 2021, though much of that reflected a bounce-back from COVID.

Inflation has trekked down

TRUMP: “They had the highest inflation perhaps in the history of our country, because I’ve never seen a worse period of time.”

THE FACTS: While praising the strength of the economy under his presidency, Donald Trump misstated the inflation rate under Biden. Inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in June 2022 after rising steadily in the first 17 months of Biden’s presidency from a low of 0.1 per cent in May 2020. It’s now seeing a downward trend. The most recent data shows that as of July it had fallen to 2.9 per cent. Other historical periods have seen higher inflation, which hit more than 14 percent in 1980, according to the Federal Reserve.

Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025

HARRIS: “What you’re going to hear tonight is a detailed and dangerous plan called Project 2025 that the former president intends on implementing if he were elected again.”

THE FACTS: Trump has said he doesn’t know about Project 2025, a controversial blueprint for another Republican presidential administration.

The plan was written up by many of his former aides and allies, but Trump has never said he’ll implement the roughly 900-page guide if he’s elected again. On the contrary, he has said it’s not related to his campaign.

Trump’s taxing and spending plan examined

HARRIS: “What the Wharton School has said is Donald Trump’s plan would actually explode the deficit.”

THE TRUTH: The Penn-Wharton Budget Model did find that Trump’s tax and spending plans would significantly expand the deficit by $5.8 trillion over ten years. But it also found that Harris’ plans would increase the deficit by $1.2 trillion over the same period.

A presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is seen from the spin room, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (Matt Slocum/AP Photo)

Harris’ record on fracking examined

TRUMP: “If she won the election, fracking in Pennsylvania will end on Day 1.”

THE FACTS: Trump’s statement ignores the fact that without a law approved by Congress, a president can only ban fracking on federal lands.

The federal government owns about two per cent of Pennsylvania’s total land, and it is not clear how much of that is suitable for oil or gas drilling.

Republicans have criticized Harris for “flip-flopping” on the issue, noting that Harris said in the 2020 campaign that she opposed fracking, a drilling technique that is widely used in Pennsylvania and other states.

Harris has since said repeatedly that she won’t ban fracking if elected, and she reiterated that in Tuesday’s debate.

Trump misrepresents crime statistics

TRUMP, criticizing the Biden administration: “Crime is through the roof.”

THE FACTS: In fact, FBI data has shown a downward trend in violent crime since a coronavirus pandemic spike. Violent crime surged during the pandemic, with homicides increasing nearly 30 per cent between in 2020 over the previous year — the largest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping records

Violent crime was down six per cent in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period the year before, according to FBI data released in March. Murders were down 13 per cent. New FBI statistics released in June show the overall violent crime rate declined 15 per cent in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. One expert has cautioned, however, that those 2024 figures are preliminary and may overstate the actual reduction in crime.

Trump endorses false rumor about immigrants eating pets

TRUMP: “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats… They’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”

THE FACTS: There’s no evidence to support the claim, which Trump and his campaign have used to argue immigrants are committing crimes at a higher rate than others.

Authorities in Ohio have said there are no credible or detailed reports to support Trump’s claim.

Jobs created under the Biden administration

“TRUMP: “Just like their number of 818,000 jobs that they said they created turned out to be a fraud.”

THE FACTS: This is a mischaracterization of the government’s process of counting jobs. Every year the Labor Department issues a revision of the number of jobs added in a 12-month period from April through March in the previous year. The adjustment is made because the government’s initial job counts are based on surveys of businesses. The revision is then based on actual job counts from unemployment insurance files that are compiled later. The revision is compiled by career government employees with little involvement by politically appointed officials.

Trump repeats false claims immigrants that noncitizens are being sought to vote

TRUMP: “A lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they’re trying to get them to vote. They can’t even speak English. They don’t even know what country they’re in practically and these people are trying to get them to vote, and that’s why they’re allowing them to come into our country.”

THE FACTS: In recent months, Trump and other Republicans have been repeating the baseless claim that Democrats want migrants to come into the country illegally so they will vote.

There’s no evidence for this, nor is there any evidence that noncitizens illegally vote in significant numbers in this country.

Voting by people who are not U.S. citizens already is illegal in federal elections. It can be punishable by fines, prison time and even deportation. While noncitizens have cast ballots, studies show it’s incredibly rare, and states regularly audit their voter lists to remove ineligible voters from the rolls.

Trump’s comments suggest that not speaking English is somehow prohibitive for voting in the U.S. — and that’s also not the case. In fact, the Voting Rights Act requires certain states to provide election materials in other languages depending on the voting-age population’s needs.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump presented different visions for the future of abortion rights during their presidential debate Tuesday.

Harris promised to sign a bill that reinstates protections for abortion rights that existed under Roe v. Wade if it reaches her desk as president while Trump would not commit to vetoing a national abortion ban if it comes to his desk.

During the debate, Trump — who claimed he wouldn’t have to veto a national ban — said he believes in exceptions for abortions in cases of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother.

“There’s no reason to sign a ban because we have gotten what everyone wanted,” Trump said, referring to leaving the regulation of abortion up to state governments.

At least 22 states have abortion bans or restrictions in effect since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe — ending federal protections for abortion rights. Of those states, 14 have ceased nearly all abortion services and four have six-week bans in effect, prohibiting abortion care before most women know they are pregnant.

Three of the five U.S. Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe were appointed by Trump when he was president.

Ten states will have reproductive rights-related questions on the ballot this November, nine of which specifically address abortion.

Voters in all six states that have had abortion questions on the ballot since Roe was overturned have voted to uphold abortion rights.

During the debate, Trump also falsely claimed that some states allow for the killing of an infant after birth. Killing a baby after birth is illegal in all 50 states.

Most states that allow abortions do so until fetal viability. But, there are no gestational limits on abortion in 9 states — including Colorado, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Vermont and Gov. Tim Walz’s state of Minnesota — and Washington, DC.

BAGHDAD – Iraqi security officials said an explosion targeted a site used by the U.S. military next to Baghdad airport late Tuesday, one day before an expected visit by Iran’s president.

The expected visit by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Baghdad Wednesday would be his first official trip abroad since taking office.

Iraq’s security media cell said in a statement that an explosion was heard at 11 p.m. at the airport, in an area used by advisers to the U.S.-led international coalition.

The statement said Iraqi security forces were unable to determine the “type or causes of the explosion, and no party has claimed responsibility for it.” It added that the incident was under investigation and civilian air traffic continued as normal.

There was no immediate information on damages or casualties.

U.S. officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

An Iraqi security official at the airport, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, said that officials who were at the airport preparing for Pezeshkian’s visit heard “the sound of two strong strikes,” which apparently targeted a logistics support site for the coalition.

Over the past 11 months, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have periodically targeted bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and have said that the strikes were in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel in the war in Gaza.

One of those militias, Kataib Hezbollah, appeared to be trying to distance itself from Tuesday night’s strike.

Jaafar al-Husseini, the group’s spokesperson, said in a statement that the targeting of the airport was “carried out by suspicious hands, and its aim is to disrupt the Iranian president’s visit to Baghdad.”

MEXICO CITY –

Shootouts in the western Mexican state of Sinaloa have kindled fears that an intra-cartel war is about to break out in the wake of the arrest of legendary trafficker, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, in July.

One soldier and two civilians were killed on Monday, authorities say. Videos widely shared online showed heavily armed gunmen moving on foot or riding trucks in areas around Culiacan, the state capital, while gunfire echoes in the background. Many cars and business have been shot at.

Calm had returned by Tuesday morning, though some shops had closed at midday.

Analysts have predicted a war within the Sinaloa Cartel ever since Zambada’s arrest on July 25. The veteran cartel leader, believed to be in his mid-70s, alleges that a senior member of the Los Chapitos, another faction of the cartel, kidnapped him and then flew him to the United States against his will.

El Mayo and Los Chapitos, a grouping led by the sons of ex-Sinaloa Cartel kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, are widely believed to lead the two most powerful factions in the powerful crime syndicate.

One Sinaloa-based security official told Reuters fighters from the Los Chapitos faction entered areas controlled by Zambada to intimidate them. Some media reports, however, suggested that it was fighters loyal to Zambada who attacked Los Chapitos’ faction.

“It is believed that there may be more fighting and that these clashes are between the same two groups (within the cartel),” said America Armenta, an independent Sinaloan journalist in Culiacan.

Mexican authorities sent another 90 special forces soldiers to Sinaloa on Tuesday, taking the number of elite troops dispatched to the state since Zambada’s arrest to nearly 600.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said the government is “watching and taking action” to ensure calm.

“It’s a confrontation, and I hope it’s temporary,” Lopez Obrador said in his daily press conference on Tuesday.

An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent.

Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that “Florida messed up that election,” and Al Gore should have won.

His method, the “13 keys to the White House,” examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.

In an article published(opens in a new tab) in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

“If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners,” Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.

Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president’s approval ratings were down.

“In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump.

While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event.

“Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election.”

Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. “But certainly, watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added.

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Former U.S. president Donald Trump’s campaign and his allies are amplifying false rumours that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were abducting and eating pets, another instance of the inflammatory and anti-immigrant rhetoric Trump has promoted throughout his campaigns.

There’s no evidence that Haitian immigrants in an Ohio community are doing that, officials say, but Trump’s campaign and vice-presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance, along with other Republicans this week, repeated the claims.

Trump’s campaign, which has hit U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris for her leadership role in U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration on the U.S.-Mexico border, issued a press release Monday, the day before Tuesday’s presidential debate, suggesting “Kamala Migrants Ravage Ohio City.” Vance, Trump’s running mate, posted Tuesday that his office has “received many inquiries” about Haitian migrants abducting pets.

Vance acknowledged Tuesday it was possible “all of these rumours will turn out to be false.”

Officials have said there have been no credible or detailed reports about the claims, even as Trump and his allies use them to amplify racist stereotypes about Black and brown immigrants.

While president, Trump questioned why the U.S. would accept people from so-called “s—-hole” countries like Haiti and places in Africa. His 2024 campaign has focused heavily on illegal immigration, often referencing in his speeches crimes committed by migrants. He argues immigrants are responsible for driving up crime and drug abuse in the United States and taking resources from American citizens.

Here’s a closer look at how the false claims have spread.

How did this get started?

On Sept. 6, a post surfaced on X that shared what looked like a screengrab of a social media post apparently out of Springfield, Ohio. The retweeted post talked about the person’s “neighbor’s daughter’s friend” seeing a cat hanging from a tree to be butchered and eaten, claiming without evidence that Haitians lived at the house. The accompanying photo showed a Black man carrying what appeared to be a Canada goose by its feet. That post continued to get shared on social media.

On Monday, Vance posted on X. “Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country. Where is our border czar?” he said. The next day, Vance posted again on X about Springfield, saying his office had received inquires from residents who said “their neighbors’ pets or local wildlife were abducted by Haitian migrants. It’s possible, of course, that all of these rumours will turn out to be false.”

Other Republicans shared similar posts. Among them was Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who posted a photo of kittens with a caption that said to vote for Trump “So Haitian immigrants don’t eat us.”

Hours before Trump’s debate with Harris on Tuesday, the former president posted two related photos on his social media site. One Truth Social post was a photo of Trump surrounded by cats and geese. Another featured armed cats wearing MAGA hats.

What do officials in Ohio say?

Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck’s office issued a statement knocking the rumours down.

“In response to recent rumours alleging criminal activity by the immigrant population in our city, we wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community,” Heck’s office said in an emailed statement.

Springfield police on Monday told the Springfield News-Sun that they had received no reports of stolen or eaten pets.

Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine held a news conference Tuesday to address the influx of Haitian immigrants to Springfield. He declined to address the allegations, deferring comment to local officials. But DeWine repeatedly spoke in support of the people of Haiti, where his family has long operated a charity.

What do we know about a separate case 175 miles (281 km) away?

An entirely unrelated incident that occurred last month in Canton, Ohio, got quickly — and erroneously — conflated into the discussion.

On Aug. 26, Canton police charged a 27-year-old woman with animal cruelty and disorderly conduct after she “did torture, kill, and eat a cat in a residential area in front (of) multiple people,” according to a police report.

But Allexis Ferrell is not Haitian. She was born in Ohio and graduated from Canton’s McKinley High School in 2015, according to public records and newspaper reports. Court records show she has been in and out of trouble with the law since at least 2017. Messages seeking comment were not returned by several attorneys who have represented her.

She is being held in Stark County jail pending a competency hearing next month, according to the prosecutor’s office.

What do advocates for Haitian immigrants say?

The posts create a false narrative and could be dangerous for Haitians in the United States, according to Guerline Jozef, founder and executive director of the Haitian Bridge Alliance, a group that supports and advocates for immigrants of African descent

“We are always at the receiving end of all kind of barbaric, inhumane narratives and treatments, specifically when it comes to immigration,” Jozef said in a phone interview.

Her comments echoed White House national security spokesman John Kirby.

“There will be people that believe it, no matter how ludicrous and stupid it is,” Kirby said. “And they might act on that kind of information, and act on it in a way where somebody could get hurt. So it needs to stop.”

What is the broader context of Haitians in Ohio and the United States?

Springfield, Ohio, a city of roughly 60,000, has seen its Haitian population grow in recent years. It’s impossible to give an exact number, according to the city, but it estimates Springfield’s entire county has an overall immigrant population of 15,000.

The city also says that the Haitian immigrants are in the country legally under a federal program that allows for them to remain in the country temporarily. Last month the Biden administration granted eligibility for temporary legal status to about 300,000 Haitians already in the United States because conditions in Haiti are considered unsafe for them to return. Haiti’s government has extended a state of emergency to the entire country due to endemic gang violence.

Another factor that’s cropping up, including being raised by Trump in an email Monday, is the August 2023 death of an 11-year-old boy who died after a vehicle driven by an immigrant from Haiti hit his school bus. After that, residents demanding answers about the immigrant community spoke out at city council meetings.

Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris clashed over abortion, the economy, immigration and Trump’s legal woes at their combative first presidential debate on Tuesday night, each seeking a campaign-altering moment in their closely fought election.

A former prosecutor, Harris, 59, appeared to get under the former president’s skin with a series of sharp attacks, prompting a visibly angry Trump to deliver a stream of falsehood-filled retorts.

At one point, she brought up Trump’s campaign rallies, goading him by saying that people often leave early “out of exhaustion and boredom.”

Trump, who has been frustrated by the size of Harris’ own crowds, said, “My rallies, we have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics.” He then pivoted to an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory claiming that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are “eating the pets” of residents.

“Talk about extreme,” Harris said, laughing.

With eight weeks to go before the Nov. 5 election, and days until early voting starts in some states, the debate – the only one scheduled – presented both opportunities and risks for each candidate in front of a televised audience of tens of millions of voters.

Harris also criticized Trump over his criminal conviction for covering up hush money payments to a porn star as well as his other indictments and a civil judgment finding him liable for sexual assault. Trump has denied wrongdoing and again accused Harris and the Democrats of orchestrating all of the cases without evidence.

The candidates opened the debate by focusing on the economy, an issue that polls show favors Trump.

Harris attacked Trump’s intention to impose high tariffs on foreign goods – a proposal she has likened to a sales tax on the middle class – while touting her plan to offer tax benefits to families and small businesses.

“Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression,” Harris said, referring to his years as president from 2017-2021. Unemployment peaked at 14.8 per cent in April 2020 and at 6.4 per cent when he left office. It was far higher in the Great Depression.

Members of the press appear in the spin room during a presidential debate between former U.S. president Donald Trump, on screen at left, and U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris, right, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Matt Slocum/AP Photo)

Trump, 78, criticized Harris for the persistent inflation during the Biden administration’s term, though he overstated the level of price increases. He also pivoted quickly to his top issue, immigration, claiming again without evidence that immigrants from “insane asylums” are crossing the U.S. southern border with Mexico.

Inflation, he said, “has been a disaster for people, for the middle class, for every class.”

The debate got under way with a surprise handshake between the two opponents, who had never met before. Harris approached Trump at his lectern, introducing herself by name, in what was the first handshake at a presidential debate since 2016.The encounter is particularly important for Harris, with opinion polls showing that more than a quarter of likely voters feel they do not know enough about her. Harris entered the race only seven weeks ago after President Joe Biden’s exit.

Harris delivered a lengthy attack on abortion limits, speaking passionately about women denied emergency care and victims of incest unable to terminate their pregnancies due to statewide bans that have proliferated since the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated a nationwide right in 2022. Three Trump appointees were in the majority of that ruling.

She also claimed Trump would support a national ban, an assertion Trump called a lie.

Trump, who has sometimes struggled with messaging on abortion, claimed falsely that Harris and Democrats support infanticide, which – as moderator Linsey Davis noted – is illegal in every state.

“As I said, you’re going to hear a bunch of lies,” Harris said.

Harris also sought to tie Trump to Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint that proposes expanding executive power, eliminating environmental regulations and making it illegal to ship abortion pills across state lines, among other right-wing goals.

Trump retorted that he has “nothing to do” with Project 2025, though some of his advisers were involved in its creation.

First meeting

Trump, who has spent weeks launching personal attacks on Harris that have included racist and sexist insults, largely avoided insults during the debate’s early moments. But he called her a “Marxist” as he grew increasingly agitated.

Trump’s advisers and fellow Republicans had urged him to focus on the high levels of inflation and immigration during Biden’s presidency, though both have dropped dramatically this year.

Presidential debates do not necessarily change voters’ minds, but they can transform the dynamics of a race. Biden’s poor performance against Trump in June led him to abandon his campaign on July 21.

In a contest that could again come down to tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states, even a small shift in public opinion could alter the outcome. The two candidates are effectively tied in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election, according to polling averages compiled by the New York Times.

The 90-minute debate, hosted by ABC News, was taking place at the National Constitution Centre in Philadelphia. As agreed by the campaigns, there was no live audience and candidates’ microphones were muted when it was not their turn to speak.

Harris spent days preparing in Pittsburgh, holding mock sessions on a stage with lights to recreate the debate environment.

Trump instead relied on informal chats with advisers, campaign appearances and media interviews to prepare, with former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – who had a memorably hostile exchange with Harris in a Democratic presidential debate in 2019 – offering advice.

On a call with reporters on Monday, Gabbard said Trump would treat Harris the same as any other opponent.

“President Trump respects women and doesn’t feel the need to be patronizing or to speak to women in any other way than he would speak to a man,” she said.

U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and former U.S. president Donald Trump took the stage on Tuesday night for their first and only scheduled presidential debate before the Nov. 5 election.

Here are some key quotes:

“I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people, and that is why I imagine and have actually a plan to build what I call an opportunity economy,” said Harris.

“Look, we’ve had a terrible economy, because inflation, which is really known as a country buster,” said Trump.

“People can’t go out and buy cereal or bacon or eggs or anything else. The people of our country are absolutely dying with what they’ve done. They’ve destroyed the economy,” said Trump.

Abortion

“I pledge to you, when Congress passes a bill to put back in place the protections of Roe v Wade as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law,” said Harris.

“Now, I believe in the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. … Now states are voting on it. … Each individual state is voting. It’s the vote of the people. Now it’s not tied up in the federal government,” said Trump.

Immigration

“I’ll tell you something, he’s going to talk about immigration a lot tonight, even when it’s not the subject that is being raised,” said Harris.

“Our country is being lost, we’re a failing nation,” Trump said, referring to people crossing into the country illegally.

Assassination attempt

“I probably took a bullet to the head for the things they say about me,” said Trump.

Truthfulness

“As I said, you’re gonna hear a bunch of lies, and that’s not actually a surprising fact,” said Harris.

“There she goes again. It’s a lie,” said Trump after Harris said he would sign a national abortion ban were he to win office.

Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack

“I had nothing to do with that, other than they asked me to make a speech,” said Trump, when asked if he regretted anything that day.

“I was at the Capitol. I was the vice president-elect. I was also a senator and on that day, the president of the United States incited a violent mob to attack our nation’s capital, to desecrate our nation’s capital,” said Harris.

Tariffs

“They are not going to have higher prices,” Trump said, defending his tariffs proposal.

COVID-19

“But what Donald Trump did, let’s talk about this, with COVID, is he actually thanked President Xi for what he did during COVID,” said Harris.

Project 2025

“What you’re going to hear tonight is a detailed and dangerous plan called Project 2025 that the former president intends on implementing if he were elected again,” said Harris

An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.

In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and East Asian descent.

Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that “Florida messed up that election,” and Al Gore should have won.

His method, the “13 keys to the White House,” examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.

In an article published(opens in a new tab) in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

“If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners,” Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.

Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president’s approval ratings were down.

“In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump.

While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event.

“Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election.”

Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. “But certainly, watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added.